Dr. Dong Hoon Oh
KDI Korean Development Institute
Ministry of Strategy and Finance
Presentación de 67 láminas
Sections:
1. Introduction
2. Theory of R&D Priority Setting
3. The practice of R&D Priority Setting in
Korea: Experience and Lessons from the
Case of Securing Core Facilities
4. Review of the S&T System and Capacity of
Mexico for R&D Priority Setting (To be
added)
5. Suggestions and Solutions (To be added)
Remarks
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Theory and practice of R&D Priority Setting.
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Review of the S&T System.
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Strategic technology planning.
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Competitiveness through the development of S&T.
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IPN contribution to achieving national goals effectively.
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Strengthen IPN´s capabilities of technology planning.
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Methods: Technology Foresight; TRM and; R&D Priority Settings (PS).
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Modules: Theory of R&D Priority Setting; Korean experience and lessons; Review of the S&T System in Mexico; Suggestions and Solutions.
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Conditions to carry on PS in IPN.
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Technology Intelligence for decision making
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Research methods: Literature review, expert meeting, case study, brainstorming and cooperation with local experts.
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Prioritization Model: Delphi Survey; BMO (Bruce Merrifeld & Ohe) Evaluation; Three Factoring; AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process); QFD (Quality Function Deployment); and the 2х2 matrix
STEPI researches science, technology and innovation (STI) policy to strengthen national competitiveness, enhance quality of life, and contribute to the development of the international community.
Future image and future scenario archetypes: Volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity.
System and Environment. Complexity.
Difficulties in decision making:
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Acceleration of change (Less time for decision making);
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Wicked problem due to Increasing complexity;
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Expiration of former success formula due to context change;
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Political short-termism (prefer instant reward than longterm benefit)
Dilemma of Decision Making:
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Horizon Scanning,
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Foresight,
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Strategy/ Action Plan .
Foresight: Systematic, participatory process, involving gathering intelligence and building visions for the medium-to-long-term future and aimed at informing present-day decisions and mobilizing joint actions.
Why Strategic Foresight matters in Digital Economy?
Byeongwon PARK
STEPI, Rep. Korea
Technology Foresight TF: Scientific and technological developments which could have a strong impact on wealth creation and quality of life.
Information -> Knowledge -> Insight -> Action
Many methods for TF:
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Critical technologies – US RAND
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Japanese National Technology Foresight (1971): Delphi Survey + scenario, social needs.
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Korean Technology Foresight Program (1993): KISTEP
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Korean National Technology Roadmap (2002): 99 key technologies
Changes in STI environment
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Capitalism without Capital
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Platform Economy
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Open innovation / open data
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Global Players (FAANG)
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Loss of Place
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Scale without mass
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Inclusiveness & Sustainability
Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology
Technology foresight, Planning, Demand Survey
R & D Evaluation, Management, Promotion
New Technology Designation & Certification
Technology Value Evaluation
Infrastructure R&D:
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Construction Technology, Water Management, Plant, Urban Architecture, Residential Environment National Land Space Information
Transportation R&D
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Transportation Logistics, Railway Technology, Aviation Safety Technology, Unmanned Vehicle, Civil Helicopter.
Practical R&D / others
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Infrastructure and Transportation Technology Promotion, Support for Infrastructure and Transportation Technology Commercialization, Regional Specialization of Construction and Transport, Planning of Infrastructure and Transportation Research, National Strategy.
Taking Lead in the Global Market
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Top Mega Structure
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Global Top Plant Construction Technology
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Global Smart City Technology
Laying Foundations for the Convergence Industry
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Korea's Own Satellite navigation
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Road of Autonomous Driving
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Next-Generation Air Traffic System
Improving well-being of People
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Future smart house
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Smart Railway System
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Eco-friendly and Barrier-free Transportation
Weight setting
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The priorities were derived by analyzing: technological, market, and national strategic importance of future Infrastructure and transportation technologies.
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Each weight was calculated by using the response results of Delphi survey.
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In order to determine the influence on the overall importance, we analyzed the influence of each factor.
Scientific and Technical Importance Weight 0.32
Market and Economic Importance 0.36
National Strategic Importance 0.32
Introduction
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PIE in Korea (Planning – Implementation – Evaluation)
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Strategic S&T Planning in Korea
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Technology Foresight Methods
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Technology Foresight Activities in Korea
Planning
The goal of the S&T planning is to prepare a long-term strategy in the field of S&T. As part of the PIE cycle, the S&T planning stems from the results of the technology foresight and technology trends analysis, and incorporates them into the S&T planning. Such a planning must include a proper set of objectives and must also suggest the most efficient ways of achieving them. The planning can cover several hierarchical layers of S&T activities, from policies over programs to projects, depending on the requirements and demands of the policymakers.
Evaluation
S&T evaluation plays the most important role in assuring the efficiency and appropriateness of the S&T activities in all their phases. Before the activities are approved and actually executed, ex-ante evaluations and feasibility studies must confirm their legitimacy and viability. During the implementation phase, continuous evaluations ensure the efficiency of the S&T efforts on the level of policies, programs and projects. Eventually, expost evaluations assess the results reached in comparison with the original purposes. All evaluation reports must both asses the current status of the evaluated activities and offer suggestions for improvements. It is of utmost importance that the results of evaluation are considered by all relevant stakeholders during all relevant S&T activities. Otherwise, the evaluation couldn’t serve its crucial purpose and may become useless.
Implementation
S&T implementation follows the planning phase. It must ensure that the desired goals are reached through the most efficient ways. During the implementation phase it is important not only to follow the strategy plan and to track the development in reaching the objectives, but also to continuously monitor changes in the S&T environment and eventually to adapt the activities to new circumstances. It must be also traced whether the proposed methods really correspond with the intended goals and, if necessary, more suitable modifications must be implemented.
TF can make unique contributions in S&T policy
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Set general research directions
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Inform funding and investment priorities
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Increase understanding and change mindsets
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Build trust between participants
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Aid collaboration across administrative boundaries
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Highlight interdisciplinary opportunities
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Build networks and strengthen communities
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Provide anticipatory intelligence to system actors
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Build visions of the future
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Inform policy and public debates
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Involvement of system actors in decision making
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Implementation by enabling buy-in to decision making processes
Technology Prioritization
Why? Lack of Resources, Money, Manpower, Time, etc.
For What? Better FUTURE! All we want to make
Who? Every single Person, Family, Company, Institute, Government, etc.
When? Every single Day, Week, Month, Year, or longer periods
Prioritization is about Investment as well as Benefit
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Maximize Benefit by
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Minimizing Risk with
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Optimized INVESTMENT
The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a structured technique for organizing and analyzing complex decisions, based on mathematics and psychology
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Group decision making
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Best suits their goal
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Building hierarchy and pairwise comparing
Fundamentals
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Hierarchical Structuring
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Weighting
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Consistency
Delphi
Is a structured communication technique
or method, originally developed as a
systematic, interactive forecasting method
which relies on a panel of experts.